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Review of: ‘Global Warming In India: Science, Impacts and Politics’, Nagaraj Adve, Eklavya, 2022.

Monday, March 4th, 2024

[Published in November 2022, volume 46, No 11 of The Book Review India]

Nagaraj Adve’s Global Warming In India is a brief and practical guide that enables the reader to engage with the discussions, debates and actions about the most pressing social and moral issue before our generation. It is written with a sense of hope and compassion for the “ordinary people” that is largely missing in similar and popular books, which tend to focus more on the specialist and technocratic solutions handed over from above and to which most of us are expected to assent to and participate merely as a consumer or observer. The first chapter about the science of global warming is presented without unnecessary jargons and covers all the concepts necessary to clearly grasp the phenomenon. But where this books differs the most from other popular climate change books is in Chapter 2 where the author identifies the “systematic drivers” of the crisis.

The root cause of climate change is capitalism’s DNA, argues Nagaraj. A society which organizes its most important tasks and goals around the maximization of profits cannot address the needs of the ecosystems or its poor and working people. It produces more and more goods by degrading quality of work and the environment through cost cuttings in pollution prevention and casualizing jobs. Lets recount two (out of many) recent incidents that support this claim. One day after Putin invaded Ukraine the LNG Allies a oil and gas lobbying association wrote an open letter to Joe Biden asking him to expand the fossil fuel infrastructure to fill the export gap in Europe created by the war and also by the sanctions against Russia1. And as a result new gas and oil pipelines have been sanctioned along with $300 million in funding by the US government for the new fossil fuel infrastructure.2 And in India, the Economic Times reported that, “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has opened arbitrage opportunities so enticing that Reliance Industries Ltd deferred maintenance work at the world’s biggest oil refining complex to churn out more diesel and naphtha after prices surged.”3

It is often claimed that it is taking us so much time to switch from fossil fuels to greener sources of energy because of all the inertia built in from previous decades of planning. But as these cases illustrate the cause of delay is not only past inertia but active investment and development for more fossil fuel dependence in present and for future.

Also, related to this is the Indian government’s policy positions on climate change. The Indian NDCs for the Paris Agreement almost entirely depend on reducing the share of fossil fuel in the energy mix. Nagaraj addresses with the deficiency of such approach in the later chapters. He points out that for actual and meaningful reduction of greenhouse gas emissions the fossil fuels must drop in absolute terms. But this demand is rejected by the Indian government and also by much of the liberal and left critics and environmentalist. They object that why should India, a “developing” nation give up on its opportunity “to grow” for mitigating a crisis created by the richer nations? One answer is being provided by the leaders of the most venerable and island nations. They have been repeatedly saying that India and China are among the top emitters and emerging economies and “while they (India and China) develop; we die; and why should we accept this?”4 The self-image of India created by the Indian intellectuals is very self serving, shifting from a “powerful” nation to “developing poor” nation as the needs of the business and political elites demand. India is the third biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and when it claims its right to more “carbon space” to develop at the cost of islands and coastal communities then, how different is the notion of “carbon space” from Nazi “living space”?

Moreover, as Nagaraj distinctly points out the policies that lead to climate crisis have also led to unparalleled inequality both globally and in India. The NCRB 2021 report reveals that in 2021, 1,64,033 people committed suicide in India, including 5 daily wage earners every hour.5 While, “during the pandemic (since March 2020, through to November 30th, 2021) the wealth of billionaires increased from INR 23.14 lakh crore (USD 313 billion) to INR 53.16 lakh crore (USD 719 billion). More than 4.6 crore Indians meanwhile are estimated to have fallen into extreme poverty in 2020 (nearly half of the global new poor according to the United Nations.) The stark wealth inequality in India is a result of an economic system rigged in favour of the super-rich over the poor and marginalised.”6 So how justified can a business as usual let-India-develop position be when only development seems to be of the top 1% and top 10% of Indians.

The final chapter on solution is filled with thought provoking ideas that are just the right balance of specific and general to help come up with concrete plans while allowing creativity and local needs to be assimilated. But, the solutions have to acknowledge and recognize the faces and the forces responsible for the economic and climate crisis: the billionaires and their corporations.

This book is an essential reading for anyone who wants to make sense of the changes taking place before us and to be a positive part of it.

1https://lngallies.com/energy-security/

2‘How the gas industry used the Ukraine war to secure new fossil fuel infrastructure’ Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

3‘Billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s refinery makes millions from war windfall’ Economic Times, May 09 2022

4Quoted in Karin Bäckstrand, Ole Elgström (2013) ‘The EU’s role in climate change negotiations: from leader to ‘leadiator’, Journal of European Public Policy, 20:10, 1369-1386, DOI:10.1080/13501763.2013.781781

5https://frontline.thehindu.com/social-issues/ncrb-2021-report-dying-young-and-jobless-in-india/article65894493.ece

6https://www.oxfamindia.org/press-release/inequality-kills-india-supplement-2022

Posted in activism, alienation, climate crisis, India | Comments Closed

The new-old boogies of oil and gas industry

Tuesday, December 7th, 2021

World Petroleum Congress was held in Houston, Texas on 06.12.2021. Where “executives from Saudi Aramco, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron, speaking at the World Petroleum Congress in Houston on Monday, blamed demand for renewables and lack of investment in fossil fuels for recent fuel shortages and price volatility.”

The things that need more attention according to the oil and gas giants are “”Energy security, economic development and affordability are clearly not receiving enough attention.” Energy security and economic development on a dead planet? The economic development of the last century – especially since the neoliberal period has been that of massive concentration of wealth and power and people losing access to essential energy needs. And the worry about affordability once again shows how the state and its subsidies and fundings are essentially what makes a technology, sector, or industry feasible under contemporary capitalism.

The industry is also raising the boogieman of inflation and social unrest. Which are not unlikely but not inevitable and both are guaranteed in a scenario where the world enters irreversible cascading climate collapse.

Posted in climate crisis, crimes of powerful | Comments Closed

Some corporate-climate-green-washing myth busting.

Tuesday, December 7th, 2021

A new report by T&E shows that the new “green” hydrogen fuels – which are made by turning electricity into hydrogen which when combined with CO2 produces a liquid fuel similar to petrol or diesel – are as, or maybe more polluting than existing fossil fuels. But the oil and gas and the automobile industry is pushing hard for these fuels. India under Modi has initiated a National Hydrogen Mission which is supposed to be a major part of the net-zero effort. Although the sector is waiting for the policy document to come and “a strong regulatory framework to be created keeping the interest of investors in mind.”

The level of NOx pollutants is equal to conventional fuels while CO (carbon monoxide) toxic production was higher in e-fuel tests.

India will soon be responsible for 3rd of the world’s air conditioning demands given the rise in extreme heat events in the region. But the ability to purchase and make billing investments is within a very small section of the population – my educated guess would be that it is roughly equal to the population owning private cars, i.e. around 2% of the national population.

Once again the only hope out of this entangled situation is the state sector coming to help the market -agencies like Energy Efficiency Services Limited will have to produce cheaper and more efficient air conditioners for the masses.

Meanwhile, European Environmental Bureau released a report on the repairability and replaceability of batteries in consumer electronics. Most new electronic gadgets do not allow for repair or replaceability of batteries creating more pollution, waste, overproduction, and burden of costs.

Posted in climate crisis, crimes of powerful | Comments Closed

Climate considerations in contemporary public work tenders

Sunday, September 12th, 2021

 

 

The current pre-tender public works procedure looks something like this: a primary investigation by the concerned department is undertaken to assess the financial and technical feasibility of the proposed project with approximate estimates, which when gets the consent of the department goes for a detailed investigation that if gets the technical approval comes out as the document for tender and work contract – including drawings, bill of quantities and specifications.

Nowhere in this two-stage investigation and approval process, ecological feasibility is examined as an independent factor in the work project. But this stage is quite crucial as the project once notified for tender almost never gets terminated and extensively revised for environmental reasons. Which is understandable because at this stage a lot of material resource, manpower, and political calculas has already been mobilized. Therefore, climate and environmental activists should focus on the policy framework determining the initial approval of public infrastructure projects.

Such a framework must become the law of the land – like the Climate Change Act 2008 in the UK. But given the fact that India is reluctant to even revise its climate goals that is a very difficult task. And even such a law with strict emission targets will not be sufficient to govern particular projects because the impact of a single work, especially small projects like single lane roads, is usually very low even over the infrastructure’s lifetime. But the cumulative effect of all projects in a region or of a megaproject with various sub-projects – like Sagar Mala do have a massive greenhouse impact.

Hence the need for planning. Planning will not only make the ecological assessment and hence the construction of a range of public infrastructure (and possibly private infrastructure) within the biophysical limits of the planet but also give the opportunity to make more just and equitable infrastructure – where the relationships of various projects and their relationship with society and classes within it is better scrutinized.

Posted in climate crisis, of engineering and engineers | Comments Closed

वायरस: कोरोना और पूंजी

Sunday, March 22nd, 2020

कोरोना वायरस से भारत में अब तक 4 लोगों की जान जा चुकी है – उनमे से 2 लोगों की जान इसलिये गई क्यंकि उन्हें प्राइवेट अस्पतालों ने भर्ती करने से मना कर दिया और वो भटक भटक कर हार गए. 17 मार्च को सरकारी मंत्रालयों ने प्राइवेट अस्पतालों से मुफ्त में कोरोना के जाँच करने का अनुरोध करा और प्राइवेट अस्पतालों के मालिकों ने मना कर दिया. प्राइवेट हस्पतालों में Rs. 5000 में जाँच हो रही है. भारत में स्वास्थ्य प्रणाली के नाम पर जादातर लोगों के लिए प्राइवेट बीमा ही उपलब्ध है. प्राइवेट बीमा कम्पनियों ने कहा है की अगर बीमा के कॉन्ट्रैक्ट में “महामारी” का ज़िक्र नहीं है तो कोरोना जाँच और इलाज के लिए पैसा नहीं मिलेगा. लेकिन उनका कहना है कि अगर कोई जीवन बीमा लेने के बाद कोरोना से मर जाए तो उसे हम पैसे ज़रूर देंगे.

लोगों की जान का ज़िम्मेदार, और लोगों की लड़ाई आज सिर्फ एक वायरस से नहीं है बल्कि जानलेवा पूंजीवाद से है. और पूंजीवाद के सिर्फ उस पक्ष से नहीं जिसके कारण एक स्वस्थ जीवन हमारा संवैधानिक और एक मौलिक मानव अधिकार भी हमें नहीं मिलता बल्कि, पूंजीवाद की जड़ से है जिसके कारण कोरोना आपदा से बड़ी आपदा इस देश और दुनिया में हमेशा बनी रहती है. ये आपदा आज नहीं आई है. ये हमारी आँखों के सामने शुरू से रही है और आगे भी लोगों की जान लेती रहेगी अगर हम मानव इतिहास के इस पल में भी न्यूनतम मानवता जगाने में असफल होते है तो.

लगभग 2 महीनो में कोरोना वायरस से भारत में 4 लोगों की जान गई. 2018 में 2080 लोगों की भारत में जलवायु आपदा के असर से जान जाने की रिपोर्ट है – हर महीने 175 मौत. कोरोना के कारण दुनिया भर में 3 महीनो में लगभग 10,000 लोगों की मौत हुई है. 2040 तक जलवायु आपदा के कारण कम से कम 4,50,000 की जान जाना तय है अगर जल्द ही ग्लोबल वार्मिंग को थामा नहीं गया तो. लेकिन इसको कैसे और क्यों रोका जाए जब 70% ग्लोबल वार्मिंग के लिए 100 बड़ी कंपनिया ज़िमेदार है? बिसनेस को नुक्सान ना हो इसलिए जनता का कर्फ्यू तक तो रविवार को रखा गया है – – ये 100 कंपनियों को नुकसान कैसे होने दें? मरते है 4 लाख लोग तो मरें.

जलवायु परिवर्तन जैसे संकट को पैदा करने के अलावा और भी रोज़मर्रा की आपदा पैदा करता है पूंजीवाद. भारत में हर साल लगभग 48,000 लोग काम पे मारे जाते है. ज़ादातक फैक्टरियों में और बिल्डिंग वगेरा बनाते समय मारे जाते है क्योंकि मजदूरों की सुरक्षा पे खर्चा अगर बढ़ेगा तो विदेशी कम्पनियाँ यहाँ पैसा नहीं लगाएगी. तो मरते है हर घंटे 6 मजदूर तो मरने दो – ये आपदा कोरोना जैसे अमीरो को नहीं लग सकती तो इसका टीवी पे क्यों ज़िक्र करें?

और कोरोना से ज्यादा घातक तो भारत में भारत की पुलिस है. हर साल पुलिस कस्टडी में 2000 लोग मारे जाते है – हर दिन 5! कोरोना को कुछ टिप्स दे सकती है भारत की पुलिस. और हर साल 100 से ज़ादा लोग भारत की फ़ौज की पाकिस्तान के गावों में शेल्लिंग से मारे जाते है – पाकिस्तान की शेल्लिंग से भारत में भी मारे जाते है, बेशक. लेकिन वो बेकसूर गाँव वालों ने ना पाकिस्तान को बोला था ना हिंदुस्तान को कि उनके आंगन में अपनी सरहद लेके आओ.

कोरोना पर वापस लौटते है. सरकार और हमारे देश की प्रणाली की क्या तैयारी है और कोरोना आपदा को रोकने में अब तक ये कितनी सफल रहे हैं? इस का फैसला करने के लिए पहले यह देखना होगा की ये किस प्रकार की आपदा है और ऐसी आपदा के लिए “अच्छी तैयारी” किसे माना जा सकता है.

क्या ये सिर्फ एक चिकित्सा सेवा का सवाल है – यानि की सिर्फ अलग अलग लोगों को एक बीमारी से कैसे बचाया जाए, मलेरिया या सर्दी खांसी के समान या फिर ये एक सार्वजनिक स्वास्थ्य का सवाल है? सार्वजनिक स्वास्थ्य से मेरा मतलब है राजय द्वारा पूरी आबादी के लिए स्वास्थ्य संबंधित सभी चीज़ों पर निगरानी और ज़रूरी पाबंदियों की व्यवस्था. मेरे ख्याल से शायद ही कोई हो जो इस बात से इंकार करे की ये एक सार्वजनिक स्वास्थ्य का सवाल है. इस हिसाब से हमारे देश की कैसी तैयारी है?

अस्पतालों में हर 1000 लोगों के लिए 1 से भी कम बिस्तर – क्यूबा में 5 से ऊपर और दुनिया का औसत 3. हर 1000 लोगों के लिए भारत में 0.8 डॉक्टर्स, क्यूबा में 8.2. हर 1000 लोगों के लिए भारत में 2.1 नर्स, क्यूबा 7.7. किस तरीके की नियंत्रण प्रणाली है हमारे देश में? सरकार निजी अस्पतालों में आपदा के वक़्त कुछ दिनों के लिए मुफ्त में जाँच भी ना करा सकी जबकि स्पेन ने कोरोना के चलते अपने सभी निजी हस्पतालों का राष्ट्रीयकरण कर दिया ताकि सबको मुफ्त और आसानी से इलाज मिल सके.

18 तारिक को कोटक महिंद्रा बैंक के मालिक ने दूसरे अरबपतियो से मीटिंग में कहा की बाजार में पैसे की कमी होने से नुक्सान होगा और 19 तारिक को आरबीआई ने Rs 10,000 करोड़ बाजार में डाल दिए. कौन किसको नियंत्रित करता है इस देश में ये शयद साफ़ है.

2018-2019 बजट में इंडिया ने स्वास्थ्य और परिवार कल्याण मंत्रालय पर Rs 54,600 करोड़ खर्च करे और “सुरक्षा” – यानि सैन्यकरण पर Rs. 4,04,365 करोड़. शयद 3-4 नए लड़ाकू विमान से कोरोना को रोका जा सकता था?

सैन्यकरण को “सुरक्षा” बोला जाता है. जो 175 लोग जलवायु आपदा से हर महीने; हर घंटे काम पर 6 और पुलिस की बर्बरता से हर दिन 5 लोग मारे जाते हैं क्या ये उनकी सुरक्षा के लिए है? क्या इस देश के भूखे लोगों के लिए सुरक्षा परमाणु हतियार है या पेट में रोटी? जो राज्य देश में लोगों को डॉक्टर और बिस्तर ना मुहैया करा सके क्या उसको हतियारो पर करोड़ो रुपया बर्बाद करने का हक़ होना चाहिए?

परमाणु हत्यार से बड़ी सार्वजनिक स्वास्थ्य आपदा शायद ही मानव इतिहास में कभी पैदा हुई हो. कोरोना वायरस से जूझने के लिए एक कमज़ोर प्रणाली ही सही, कुछ तो है हमारे पास. लेकिन एक परमाणु विस्फोट का नतीजा होगा एक शहर के एक बार में 150 हस्पताल 2मिनट में धूल हो जाना. महीनो के लिए बिजली गायब हो जाना – जिसके बिना जो हस्पताल चल सकते है उनमें भी काम ठप हो जाना. खाना और पानी जहर हो जाना, सड़को पे बिल्डिंग के मलबे से यातायात ठप हो जाना. कोरोना के लक्षण तो खांसी और सर्दी के है – जो गिने चुने लोगों को परमाणु विस्फोट के बाद हस्पताल लाया जा सकेगा उनके लक्षण होंगे उनके शरीर का गलना, और आसपास की हर चीज़ को रेडिएशन से जहरीला बना देना.

और ये तो उस समय की बात है जब बड़ी जंग नहीं होगी और कुछ ही परमाणु हतियारो का इस्तेमाल होगा. अगर भारी मात्रा में यह इस्तेमाल हुए तो वो मानव सभ्यता का अंत होगा. और यह कोई काल्पनिक बात नहीं है. आज भारत के पास 140 परमाडू हतियार है और 120 पाकिस्तान के पास. और नए और आसानी से इस्तेमाल किये जाने वाले हतियार और लॉन्चेर्स दोनों देश बना चुके है और कई बार तैनात भी कर चुके हैं. एक और तनाव की इस्थिति और एक और हिसाब में गलती की कीमत करोड़ों जान होगी.

ये है आज के भारत की सार्वजनिक स्वास्थ्य का हिसाब. कंपनियों के मुनाफा खोरी के कारन मुफ़्त में ईलाज नहीं हो सकता और ऐसे कानून नहीं बनाए जा सकते जिससे मजदूर काम पे सुरक्षित काम कर सकें और सब खुली हवा में सांस ले सकें. राज्य अपनी हुकूमत बनाए रखने के लिए मानव सभ्यता को रोज़ दाव पर लगा रहा है. लेकिन गलती कुछ हद तक हमारी है. अकेले घर में बैठ कर कोरोना से बचने के लिए हम सब राज़ी है लेकिन एकजुट होके सार्वजनिक स्वास्थ्य के लिए लड़ने को नहीं. लेकिन इसको बदला जा सकता है. हम अपनी सुविधा और डर के चलते जीवन को विलुप्त होने देंगे या फिर कोरोना के अनुभव से सीख कर असली सुरक्षा की लड़ाई में शामिल होंगे. विकल्प हमारे पास है – पर ज़ादा समय के लिए नहीं.

Posted in existential threats, India | Comments Closed

“Kashmir crisis in sharp focus”: Crisis Group

Friday, December 27th, 2019

After years of being off radar of international conflict monitoring groups, Kashmir is ranked 8th in Crisis Group’s “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2020”; above Ukraine and just below US-North Korea conflict.

“After falling off the international radar for years, a flare-up between India and Pakistan in 2019 over the disputed region of Kashmir brought the crisis back into sharp focus. Both countries lay claim to the Himalayan territory, split by an informal boundary, known as the Line of Control, since the first Indian-Pakistani war of 1947-48.

First came a February suicide attack by Islamist militants against Indian paramilitaries in Kashmir. India retaliated by bombing an alleged militant camp in Pakistan, prompting a Pakistani strike in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Tensions spiked again in August when India revoked the state of Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status, which had served as the foundation for its joining India 72 years ago, and brought it under New Delhi’s direct rule.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government, emboldened by its May re-election, made the change in India’s only Muslim-majority state without any local consultation. Not only that: before announcing its decision, it brought in tens of thousands of extra troops, imposed a communications blackout, and arrested thousands of Kashmiris, including the entire political class, many of whom were not hostile to India.

These moves have exacerbated an already profound sentiment of alienation among Kashmiris that will likely further fuel a long-running separatist insurgency. Separately, the Indian government’s new citizenship law, widely regarded as anti-Muslim, has sparked protests and violent police responses in many parts of India. Together with the actions in Kashmir, these developments appear to confirm Modi’s intention to implement a Hindu nationalist agenda.

New Delhi’s claims that the situation is back to normal are misleading. Internet access remains cut off, soldiers deployed in August are still there, and all Kashmiri leaders remain in detention. Modi’s government seems to have no roadmap for what comes next.

Pakistan has tried to rally international support against what it calls India’s illegal decision on Kashmir’s status. But its cause is hardly helped by its long record of backing anti-India jihadis. Moreover, most Western powers see New Delhi as an important partner. They are unlikely to rock the boat over Kashmir, unless violence spirals.

The gravest danger is the risk that a militant attack sets off an escalation. In Kashmir, insurgents are lying low but still active. Indeed, India’s heavy-handed military operations in Kashmir over the past few years have inspired a new homegrown generation, whose ranks are likely to swell further after the latest repression. A strike on Indian forces almost certainly would precipitate Indian retaliation against Pakistan, regardless of whether Islamabad is complicit in the plan. In a worst-case scenario, the two nuclear-armed neighbours could stumble into war.

External actors should push for rapprochement before it is too late. That won’t be easy. Both sides are playing to domestic constituencies in no mood for compromise. Resuming bilateral dialogue, on hold since 2016, is essential and will necessitate concerted pressure, particularly from Western capitals. Any progress requires Pakistan taking credible action against jihadis operating from its soil, a non-negotiable precondition for India to even consider engaging. For its part, India should lift the communication blackout, release political prisoners, and urgently re-engage with Kashmiri leaders. Both sides should resume cross-border trade and travel for Kashmiris.

If a new crisis emerges, foreign powers will have to throw their full weight behind preserving peace on the disputed border”.

Posted in India, nuclear weapons | Comments Closed

TONS #3 – Who is a terrorist?

Sunday, November 10th, 2019

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Day 98 of the continued brutal crackdown and in its response mass civil-disobedience, strikes in Indian occupied Kashmir.  Graphic novelist Malik Sajad’s Op-Art has been published by the New York Times.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists last week published an article by nuclear experts, including Alan Robock and Hans Kristensen that presents one of the many possible nuclear exchange scenarios in the near future when “each country will possess about 250 nuclear weapons. In the end, Pakistan will use all its weapons, while India will reserve 100 of them to defend against future attacks from China.”

They predict close to 10 crore deaths within weeks and”a nuclear winter would halt agriculture around the world and produce famine for billions of people… Also, ozone would be destroyed as the rising smoke absorbs sunlight and heats the stratosphere, allowing more ultraviolet light to reach the ground and creating negative effects that we have yet to study.”

On the legitimacy of nuclear weapons and deterrence, they write that “the existence of enormous arsenals of nuclear weapons during this time has not prevented terrorism or countless regional, territorial, and politically motivated military actions, taking in aggregate a terrible human toll. It would be foolhardy, of course, to suggest that an effective way to stop warfare would be to arm all nations with nuclear weapons as local deterrents. Contrarily, we understand, in the 21st century, that establishing mechanisms for conflict negotiation and resolution on a global international basis is the only safe and practical way to end the carnage. We are not Pollyannas. But it should be the mission of every concerned citizen, particularly those in positions of influence, to work toward the abolition of nuclear weapons, within the context of global peace and security mechanisms”

The threat of nuclear weapons (besides, only, climate breakdown) poses the question of cosmic significance: will organized life survive? No terrorist organization or armed insurgency comes anywhere close to posing such a threat.

Nissim Mannathukkaren in The Hindu writes that, “an analysis done by political satirist Ramit Verma showed that of the 202 popular prime-time news debates across four major Hindi channels till October 19, at least 79 were about attacking Pakistan; 66 about attacking the Opposition; 36 about praising the Prime Minister and the ruling party; and 14 about Ram Mandir. There was not a single debate on the economy, unemployment, education, health, gender, farmers or the environment. This is simply staggering by any measure.” He could have added the menacing nuclear threat to the list.

Mannathukkaren also points out that “in 2018, terrorism/militancy killed 400 civilians and security personnel. Compare this to the fact that 1,02,677 children (under five) died from easily preventable diarrhoeal diseases in 2017, or that 8,75,659 children (under five) were killed by communicable, neonatal and nutritional diseases. Or consider that while the number of terrorism/militancy-related deaths have come down substantially to around 500 from 2011 onwards, the burden of deaths from diseases like cardiovascular ones has drastically increased from about 13 lakh in 1990 to 26.32 lakh in 2017.”

Yet in the 2018-2019 Union Budget of India, we spent Rs 1,14,915 crore on Rural Development, Rs 41,765 crore on Housing and Urban Affairs, Rs 54,600 crore on Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Rs 71,000 crore on Road Transport and Highways, Rs 22,357 crore on Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation, Rs 85,010 crore on Human Resource Development.

While we spent Rs 4,04,365 crore on “defense”.

The monster that is the Indian state is swallowing up its own population for the health of the war machine, with 10 crore life under its fingers, it is one of the biggest terrorist organization in world history. Kashmiris are bravely resisting and fighting this mammoth.

Posted in nuclear weapons, The Warlords (national security), TONS Weekly | Comments Closed

Threat of National Security #1

Monday, October 28th, 2019

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Day 85 of the lockdown of Indian colony, Kashmir. The Atlantic recently uploaded a documentary, Artists in Kashmir, the World’s Most Militarized Zone. New Delhi pressured London to curb the 10,000 storng Kashmiri protest on Black Day. The national security establishment is also likely to cancel a $2.3 billion tender with Turkey for its stand against Art. 370 revocation. The tender is to help build 5 support ships with HAL. In the local “elections”, BJP, the only party that participated, won 81 seats – village council members, and the general public did not participate.

Nagaland and Manipur put on High Alert before the final round of Nagaland “peace talks”. In New Delhi, even as the senior leaders of the “separatist” organization NSCN-(IN) left the organizations to take part in the “peace process” between NSCN Working Committee and Government of India the dialogues are not moving forward. The negotiations are marked by the absence of civil society organizations, many tribal groups, and armed groups. RN Ravi, the former IB chief, Deputy NSA and, current Governer of Nagaland has been the main interlocutor since the Modi government began the negotiations. The reasons for the stalemate are the question of “separate flag and constitution”. Missing from the negotiations and the 2015 Framework Agreement that initiated the process is the talk of militarism in the region and mechanisms like AFSPA.

A 2018 Standing Committee on Home Affairs’ report on Security Situation in the North Eastern States of India noted that at least in Assam the security situation has significantly improved but at the same time the “Disputed Areas” have been increased to cover the whole of the state. Even as the violence in Nagaland remains relatively high, completely rolling over the issue in the “peace process” doesn’t give a lot of hope for peace in the region anytime soon.

India might have tested it’s Arihant class nuclear-capable K4 missile from nuclear-powered submarine between 23rd to 25th Oct. A research paper published on 2nd October states that if India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 12 crore people and massive food shortage for decades, water and air poising for much longer.

Posted in nuclear weapons, The Warlords (national security), TONS Weekly | Comments Closed

Climate Crisis: Some Relevant Graphs for India

Friday, October 11th, 2019

Posted in climate crisis, crimes of powerful | Comments Closed

Part of my presentation on climate law at some university:

Saturday, July 27th, 2019

A question has been bothering me for quite some time now. The question is, whether it is better to do something – something that gives only an illusion of reaching a solution to a problem or, to do nothing about it? The paper was an attempt to clarify some issues around this problem.

What do I mean by actions “that only gives an illusion of reaching a solution” – by vacuous actions? I believe any solution that does not incorporate and take into account the core of the problem can never meaningfully solve the problem and hence are only empty posturing.

In case of climate change then, what are the core issues that any meaningful action must incorporate? There are several, but here I have only focused on four – three general and one India specific (but a derivative of a general issue).

The first one has to do with total global carbon budget. To keep global mean temperature below the catastrophic threshold of 2°C there is only a limited amount of greenhouse gases we can emitte. The global carbon budget for 2°C according to IPCC Working Group I is less than 700 GtCO2 and for 1.5°C is around 400 GtCO2.

But the divergence from this fact and core issue starts to appear in the IPCC itself when the Working Group III in it’s modeling assumes that we have a budget of around 1600 GtCO2 – almost three times the actual. All actions to mitigate climate catastrophe must take this fact into account.

The second part of the core of the climate problem has to do with carbon removal technologies. There are many variants of these technologies and the scientific community has been telling us again and again that none of them exist . Atleast they can not be deployed in the scale required in given time. But the IPCC Working Group I assumes these technologies in its modeling – this brings our global carbon budget significantly further down. This fact must also be taken into account in any set of meaningful actions.

Third, the recent IPCC special report on 1.5°C says that what is now required to avoid the worst possible catastrophe is a “rapid and far reaching transition in all aspects lf human activity” which is “unprecedented in human history”. It doesn’t recommend patching up older actions, policies and legislation.

And sadly, I haven’t came across any discussion of these issues in last two days in the conference. There is a limit to hiding behind the language of differentiated responsibility after which it morphs into irresponsibility.

The fourth point – about India. Using some older model I have tried to show in the paper that even in best case scenario, India has the carbon budget of around 40 GtCO2. Which means even if USA and the EU decarbonise rapidly and reach net-zero around 2040, to avoid climate cascade into an inhabitable planet India can only emit for 10 more years at current rate.

Any meaningful action in India must take this into account – otherwise it’s just a masquerade for business as usual.

What I have been trying to say is that we cannot negotiate with or fool laws of physics. And if we cannot do that, the only options we have are to either follow IPCCs recommendation of rapid and unprecedented transition in all aspects of human life or to embrace extinction.

Posted in climate crisis, India | Comments Closed

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